How did Week 14 of the NFL season shake up the possible 2024 NFL Draft order?
To get an update on where things stand, we turn to Austin Mock’s projections. Mock projects the score for every game and the final winning percentage for every team using his NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. The simulation then runs 100,000 times after each day of games to give us, in this case, our projected top-10 draft order, plus each team’s projected win total and playoff chances.
Projected top 10 (as of Dec. 12)
A few thoughts on this week’s projections:
1. The Bears are (almost) on the clock
Strange things happen at the end of NFL regular seasons, so we can’t totally slam the door on the Panthers stumbling into a couple wins — they close with three of four at home, and all three of those home dates are against teams currently under .500 (Atlanta, Green Bay, Tampa Bay). Still, New England’s Week 13 Thursday night win in Pittsburgh all but sewed up the No. 1 pick for Chicago — which owns Carolina’s pick via trade.
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The projection for Chicago’s other first-round pick is sliding toward mid-Round 1, as Justin Fields and company have suddenly found a winning formula. The Bears are projected to be on the clock again at No. 10, but they also now hold a 7.0 percent playoff chance and sit just a game back of the seventh seed in the NFC.
But, as things have been trending for weeks now, the Bears look like they’ll have the first pick in Detroit on April 25.
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2. Washington is creeping back into this thing
Don’t look now, but the Commanders — losers of four straight and six of seven — have emerged as a threat for a top-two pick. Washington had a bye in Week 14, but that Patriots win closed the gap from picks 2 and 3 to where Washington currently sits at No. 4. And the Commanders close with road games at the Rams and Jets, followed by home matchups with San Francisco and Dallas. The 49ers and Cowboys could be resting players for the playoffs, but divisional races and playoff seeding will have to be unpacked.
Even if the Commanders stay put, it’s plausible that they’d snatch the third quarterback off the board. What helps this franchise more in the long-term: a cornerstone offensive tackle (Olu Fashanu, Joe Alt) or a replacement for Sam Howell (Jayden Daniels, maybe)?
3. How low can the Raiders go?
Score-wise, they can’t go any lower — even that Aidan O’Connell-led offense can’t work its way into the negatives. Las Vegas’ projected win total dipped again this week, however, down from 7.0 a week ago to 6.7. And while the Raiders already have too many wins (five, with the Justin Herbert-less Chargers on deck) to be in the top-three mix, they’re certainly in contention for the top five.
Could that be another landing spot for a quarterback? Our Raiders beat writer, Tashan Reed, thinks so. He wrote Tuesday that it’s “time for the Raiders to do what they should’ve done last offseason: draft their quarterback of the future.”
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A few of the names he tossed out as possibilities — Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler — almost certainly would be available beyond Day 1 of the draft. At least in the cases of Penix and Rattler, though, conversations will need to be had about their viability as legitimate “QB of the future” options. So, Las Vegas might be in the same boat as teams like New England and Washington: Round 1 QB or bust.
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4. Welcome to the top 10 …
… the Los Angeles Chargers. Their season from hell tacked on a 24-7 loss to the Broncos and a season-ending Justin Herbert injury this week. The Chargers sit in 12th place in the AFC, two games out of a wild-card spot and behind a half-dozen 7-6 clubs vying for the postseason. It’s over, especially with games against the Bills, Broncos (again, on the road this time) and Chiefs still left.
Mock’s model gives Los Angeles just one more win this season (projected win total of 6.1), and that probably hinges on this week’s Thursday night toss-up against the Raiders.
An 0-4 close, with Herbert on the shelf, probably would push the Chargers into the top five. With significant changes no doubt coming in the offseason (if not before), that’d be the best path forward.
5. Who’s going to the playoffs?
As things stand coming out of Week 14, your AFC wild-card teams are the Browns, Steelers and Colts; in the NFC, it’s now the Eagles (who fell out of the NFC East lead), Vikings and now 6-7 Packers.
Mock’s model still likes Minnesota (75 percent playoff chance) and Green Bay (55 percent) to hang onto those final two NFC spots, with struggling Detroit (81.2 percent division-title chance) hanging onto the North. The biggest threat looks to be the second-place finisher in the NFC South, where Tampa Bay (40.9 percent playoff chance) has moved atop the standings. Atlanta (42.9 percent) actually has the best projected playoff odds there, followed by New Orleans (34.5 percent). The Seahawks have dropped to 8.1 projected wins and a 19.8 percent playoff shot.
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The AFC, meanwhile, is a complete mess. Thanks to their dramatic — and controversial — win in Kansas City, the Bills, who right now are in 11th place in the conference, have a healthy 55.6 percent playoff shot. The Browns, a game ahead of the madness at 8-5, sit at 87.9 percent. The very tentative favorite for the final AFC wild-card slot is Indianapolis (46.7 percent), just ahead of Houston (44.4 percent), Denver (37.5 percent) and Pittsburgh (29.3 percent), the Colts’ Week 15 opponent.
Stay tuned there.
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(Photo: Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
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